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Strategy development requires that managers predict the future in an inherently uncertain world. Many mistakenly do so on the basis of perceived historical patterns that, according to recent scientific understanding of complex systems, do not have great predictive value. Complex systems consisting of many dynamically interacting parts are difficult and often impossible to predict because they exhibit punctuated equilibrium (periods of relative quiescence interspersed with episodes of dramatic change) and path dependence (small, random changes at one point in time that lead to radically different outcomes later). What, then, is a strategist to do? Beinhocker recommends cultivating and managing populations of multiple strategies that evolve over time, because the forces of evolution acting on a population of strategies make them more robust and adaptive. Because both biological evolution and business evolution are complex adaptive systems, to better understand business strategy, managers can employ a tool that scientists use to better understand biological evolution. An imaginary grid called a fitness landscape is an aid to comprehending how evolution increases the odds of survival in nature. In general, the rules for success in fitness landscapes also apply to business problems, though their specific application differs significantly by company and situation. The lessons of fitness landscapes offer an untraditional picture of what a company needs to develop a successful strategy. Because shifting an organization to this way of thinking about strategy is not easy, a company can take six actions to reinforce the robust, adaptive mind-set: -- Invest in a diversity of strategies. -- Evaluate strategies as real options that may open future possibilities, and remove biases that undervalue experimentation and flexibility. -- Diversify strategies along three dimensions -- time frame, risk, and relatedness to current business. -- Ensure that the strategies include sufficiently diverse initiatives in promising areas. -- Check that selection pressures on the firm's population of strategies reflect those operating on the population of strategies in the marketplace. -- Use venture capital performance metrics.

Leaders make three primary mistakes when facing pushback. Consider these five guidelines to better respond.

The good word from devoted customers may not always be the most effective promotional tool.

Why are some companies able to remain vital, even after extensive reengineering, while others flounder and fail? The answer, according to these authors, lies in a company's ability to rejuvenate its employees by establishing a behavioral context with four characteristics -- discipline, support, trust, and stretch. The authors trace postwar corporate history to identify the pernicious qualities that have ossified many companies, using the example of Westinghouse to illustrate an oppressive context based on the elements of compliance, control, constraint, and contract. They also show how companies like Intel and 3M have been able to renew themselves by creating an environment in which people are the most important resource.

Companies' financial strength and market position depend on successful new product introductions, which, in turn, depend on successful product rollovers. Given the low success rate of product rollovers, companies need a formal process to plan and coordinate product rollovers and to reduce risk. This article presents a framework to help companies manage product rollovers, choose the best rollover strategy, and improve product rollovers. Companies need to plan their rollovers early, when they are planning the new product's introduction. First, they choose a primary rollover strategy, based in part on assessment of the uncertainties associated with the product's manufacturing, delivery, and market potential. Then they monitor product and market conditions. Finally, as product and market conditions change, they adopt a contingency strategy if necessary. Companies can consider two primary strategies for product rollovers. Solo-product roll, a high-risk, high-return strategy, aims to have all the old products sold out worldwide at the planned new product introduction date. The less risky dual-product roll plans to sell both old and new products simultaneously for a period of time and can be implemented in a variety of ways. If changed product and market conditions increase the product's risk, companies can choose from among four contingency strategies: making significant price markdowns, postponing the new product's introduction, introducing the new product earlier than planned, or combining two or more dual-product-roll strategies. Finally, while contingency strategies enable companies to modify their primary strategies if appropriate, companies can improve their product rollovers significantly by exploiting opportunities to reduce the product and market risks of each new product in the first place.

Although top managers must project an image of professionalism and strength, they still require networks of individuals they can trust. The development of trust depends on the degree to which the executives perceive the presence of three critical attributes & #8212; ability, benevolence and integrity & #8212; within their support networks, and on their ability to match these qualities with the type of support they are seeking in any particular situation. We model the support being sought as having high or low informational complexity and high or low emotional demand. The combinations correspond to four types of support requested: raw information (low, low), actionable advice (high, low), emotional support (low, high), and strategic or political help (high, high). Meanwhile, the three critical attributes (each with either a high or low rating) translate into eight kinds of support providers: Trustworthy Partner, Harsh Truthteller, Moral Compass, Loyal Supporter, Star Player, Average Joe, Dealmaker and Cheerleader. Executives in need of actionable advice will most often turn to Trustworthy Partners or Harsh Truthtellers, given their high levels of ability and integrity. For strategic or political help, Trustworthy Partners will be sought because of their high levels of ability, benevolence and integrity. Seekers of emotional support will look to Loyal Supporters and Trustworthy Partners because they offer high levels of benevolence and integrity. And when the three facets of trust are less critical, executives will be willing to go to virtually any of their contacts for raw information, though most often they seek out Average Joes. These and other matches were observed, useful data was gathered and valuable insights were obtained when we tested our model on vice presidents, directors, general managers and other executives at a Fortune 50 technology firm.

To grow steadily and avoid stagnation, a company must learn how to scale up and extend its business, lengthen its expansion phase, and accumulate and apply new knowledge to products and markets faster than competitors. Managers can't leave growth to chance. They need a plan that renders consistent sales growth over the long term -- one that captures management's vision for expansion and that addresses the product and market combinations the company intends to pursue, the size it hopes to achieve in a particular time frame and the know-how and organizational structures needed. Such planning has an internal focus. It aims to help a company exert more control over its own fate as it rises to external challenges. Three thriving companies demonstrate three different strategies in action. The Netscape experience shows how a company can scale up -- do more of what it already does well. Netscape went from $80 million in sales in 1995, its first full year of operation, to $500 million just three years later. IKEA used duplication -- repeated the business model in new regions. Established in 1954 as a small domestic furniture manufacturer and retailer in Sweden, by 1999 IKEA had 50,000 employees and a presence in 25 countries. As the authors explain in depth, IKEA's success is tied to the way it manages and transfers knowledge. SAP's growth strategy is an example of granulation -- growing select business units. SAP started with a basic enterprise-resource-planning system, then moved to multiple products for e-commerce and Internet activities. Using one product as a platform, it began allowing customers to fine-tune virtually any resource-planning system. The authors emphasize the importance of combining strategies for growth with explicit strategies for learning. Companies must decide what kind of growth strategy they want to pursue, given their capabilities and market opportunities. They must then make the strategy work by changing their structure and processes in a way that lets them acquire or create specific knowledge about new technologies, customers and industries. The integration of growth strategies and learning strategies is at the heart of success.