Using Scenario Analysis to Manage the Strategic Risks of Reengineering
Reengineering is a risky business, and the risks result both when companies try to do too little in their reengineering efforts and when they try to do enough. They may make the wrong or inadequate changes to systems or processes, or they may make radical changes that lead to political backlashes. To manage the risks of reengineering, according to the author, it is essential to anticipate a company's future environmental and operational uncertainties and to achieve consensus on the changes that need to be made. Scenario analysis provides a way to avoid the obstacles to "revisioning" -- overconfidence, intellectual arrogance, and anchoring in the present.