Assess What Is Certain in a Sea of Unknowns
Developing strategy in a uncertain environment requires both anticipating what may change and recognizing what will remain constant. When leaders are engaged in scenario-planning activities, identifying the different kinds of constraints that shape the future — physical, temporal, institutional, and cultural — can help them ground and focus their thinking about what is amenable to change. A framework that outlines five types of certainties can help inform these strategic planning efforts.
